A three-layered compartmental model of Nipah virus transmission with analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Department of Science, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

Abstract

In this work, we have proposed a three-layered (fruit bat-to-fruit-to-human) compartmental model for the description of the spread of the Nipah virus. We have proved the positivity and boundedness of the model's solutions. The bounded nature of the answers also suggests that the disease spread process eventually reaches a steady state, which helps preventing unrealistic predictions. We have shown that a disease-free equilibrium point has local stability. Besides, the global stability of disease-free equilibrium point has been demonstrated with the help of a fluctuation lemma. We have fitted our model with the reported cases of infection and death in Bangladesh. From sensitivity analysis, we understand which parameters are more sensitive to change. Lastly, we have solved the model equations numerically utilizing the Runge-Kutta method to examine the effect of various parameters on the population of the model classes.

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Journal of Mathematical Modeling

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 04 February 2025

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